why west is losing its step in arab spring?

• western powers interference has yielded little success
• now battle lines are being drawn for syria with US now calling for removal of Assad
• different interventions
• direct in libya
• envoys in egypt
• mild rebukes in saudi and bahrain
• tunisia
• main control now with army
• elections postpones fmr jul to oct 2011
• egypt
• fought for
• end of militairy rule
• end of tight control on intelligence agency
• political reforms
• many of rulers loyalists still in army postns
• army tight control
• religious conservatives have sidelined liberals
• libya
• 5 months of bombing and yet no results
• pushed into civil war
• key issue
• world thought cause was democracy
• reality is shia-sunni
• tribal rivalry
• separatist movts
• demonstrations by thousands of people doesnt necessarily create +ve chng
• btwn 1970-2000: 100 countries protests for dcrcy; only 20 achvd
• 43% countries that defeated dictator ended up in civil wars
• conclusion
• UNSC must look into the history and take action accordingly

Historic achievement for palestinians

·         Palestinian liberation organisation formally recongised israel as a state under oslo accord 1993 and gave up its armed struggle against israel

·         Hamas was formed in 1987 and it doesn’t recognise israel and has continued armed struggle

o   It is led by khaled mishal

·         Hamas had won palestinian elections in 2006 but the west opposed it and cut of all aid which is main source of funding for palestine

·         Fatah party is supported by west and it currently rules west bank while hamas is in control of gaza

o   Hamas is backe by iran and syria

·         Following this agreement there is every chance hamas may come to power

·         It remains to be seen how US and EU respond to this new development

·         This new deal has be brokered by egypt

·         Under the unity agreement they have agreed to form a joint caretaker government, with presidential and legislative elections to be held in 2012

Roadmap for two state solution

·         With world attention on arab world and obama busy preparing for e-election, there is little hope of moving forward on the israel palestine issue

·         Israel ahs already snubbed US by refusing to extend the ceasefire and settlement construction in west bank

·         With the changes occuring in araba world it is likely that the new rulers will side with palestine

·         In that scenario israel will lose out.

·         The only solution is a two state solution

·         The roadmap for this has been laid out many a time before(toba negotiations, clinton parameters, geneva initiative)

·         Palestine has already been vetted by IMF and world bank and a couple of countries

·         Plaestine plans to approach UN for recognition soon

BLUE PRINT

·         Recongise the right of self determination of paletinians

·         Provide palestinians with a territory as big as west bank

·         Palestinians must be compensated for any alnd acquired by israel

·         Refugees should have right to demand compensation

o   International community should create a fund to provide compensation

·         Palestiniann capital al quds should be setup ine ast jerusalem

·         UN should monitor and ensure everyone has a right to practice the religion of his/her choice

INDIA’S RÔLE

·         India needs to show initiative in taking the above approach forward

·         India through IBSA , BRIC should get more antions to support the initiative

·         It is only through international commntiy support that the politicians of the two nations can get the courage to overcome their problems and take some ahrd decisions