· Prediction of a normal monsoon
o Deficient : rain less than 90% of long period average
o Below normal: 90-96% “
o Normal: 96-104%
o Above normal:104-110%
o Excess:110%+
· La Niña effect
o Cooling of eastern and central pacific waters
o Results in good monsoons in India
· El Niño effect
o Warming of equatorial eastern pacific waters
o Associated with 65% of droght years
· Indian ocean dipole
o Due to anomalies in sea surface temperatures of easter and western indian ocean
o A positive phase sees greater-than-average sea-surface temperatures and greater precipitation in the western Indian Ocean region, with a corresponding cooling of waters in the eastern Indian Ocean—which tends to cause droughts in adjacent land areas of Indonesia and Australia. The negative phase of the IOD brings about the opposite conditions, with warmer water and greater precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean, and cooler and drier conditions in the west.
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